Will a fall to $70K confirm bear market conditions for Bitcoin?

In Q4 2025, Bitcoin dropped by 30% after falling below $90k. This was typical of a pullback during bull runs, but the correction also cracked a key support, prompting some renowned analysts to turn bearish in the mid-term. 

This raises the question – At what level will the bear market condition be applicable, and are we currently in one? 

For pseudonymous analyst Jackis, even a further drop to $70k won’t mark a “typical bear market” but a “macro range for 2025.” For him, the current weakness is a “temporary pause on macro trend.”  He added, 

BTC struggles below key support

However, on the price charts, the current Bitcoin price action is more than just a monthly range. Historically, the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA, blue line) has served as the primary support for bull markets. 

A sustained stay below the 50W EMA marked the past bear market conditions.

The extended correction below $100k in mid-November pushed price action below this key bull market support. Unless reclaimed, the bullish uptrend could be at risk. 

So, a drop to $60k-$70k would mark a potential bottoming or reversal from a “bear market” based on the 50W EMA. 

The zone would be the previous breakout level that eased BTC’s deeper corrections per historical data. Even ex-Ark Invest’s lead, Chris Burniske, echoed this outlook. 

BTC losses near bear market regimes

From an on-chain data perspective, press time levels seemed to be near full bear market capitulation conditions. The aSOPR metric, which tracks if coins are being sold at a profit or loss and sentiment, was close to slipping below 1. 

Previous dips below 1 reinforced bear market capitulations and also marked market reversals. 

The same outlook was reinforced by the Total Supply in Loss. About 7 million BTC supply is in loss now – The highest during this cycle. It was close to the 8-10 million BTC supply at loss that marked previous bearish regimes, noted Glassnode. 

Overall, the current $88k level and 30% dip have put the market under extreme stress. A further price drop to $60k-$70k could trigger losses that mirror past bearish regimes. 

Final Thoughts

• Bitcoin  could trigger past bear market capitulation if it drops to $60k-$70k.
• Reclaiming $98k-$100k or the 50W EMA could reinforce the bullish uptrend.