Bitcoin at Crossroads: Will $75K Support Hold or Break Toward $60K?

TLDR:

• Bitcoin holds above $75,000 weekly support but trades below 20-week and 50-week moving averages for first time. 
• Bullish scenario requires holding April 2025 lows and reclaiming $100,400 resistance to confirm cycle continuation. 
• Breaking April 2025 low would invalidate higher-low structure and open path toward $50,000-$60,000 correction zone. 
• Weekly closes above $75,000 and April lows will determine if current decline is pullback or trend reversal.

Bitcoin stands at a critical juncture above $75,000, a key weekly support level that could determine whether the cryptocurrency climbs toward $100,000 or descends to $60,000.

The digital asset recently retested this zone after falling below both the 20-week and 50-week moving averages. Market participants now watch closely as price action at this level will shape the next major directional move for the leading cryptocurrency.

Two Distinct Paths Emerge at $75,000 Support

The current technical setup presents two contrasting scenarios for Bitcoin’s trajectory. The first scenario requires Bitcoin to hold the April 2025 low and establish $75,000 as the cycle bottom.

This outcome would preserve the long-term trend of higher highs and higher lows that has characterized the bull market.

For this bullish scenario to materialize, Bitcoin must stop making lower lows around the $75,000 area. The recent decline would then be classified as a pullback rather than a trend break.

Bull Theory noted on X that Bitcoin is “trading above the $75,000 level, which is a key weekly support level on the chart.”

The 20-week moving average pressing below the 50-week moving average typically signals bearish momentum. However, this indicator can also represent a delayed signal following a sharp correction.

The crucial test comes if Bitcoin attempts to reclaim the 50-week moving average, currently positioned at $100,400.

A clean weekly close above $100,400 would confirm that momentum has shifted back to buyers. Market structure would then favor continuation of the four-year cycle pattern. Weekly closes showing renewed buying interest above the April 2025 low would strengthen this interpretation.

Breakdown Below Key Support Opens Downside Targets

The alternative scenario involves Bitcoin breaking below the April 2025 low, which would fundamentally alter the market structure.

Such a move would invalidate the higher low pattern and negate the $75,000 support zone. The breakdown would shift probabilities toward a deeper correction phase.

Should this bearish scenario unfold, the $50,000 to $60,000 range becomes the primary downside target. This zone represents a major psychological level and historically serves as a reset area after significant corrections. The distance from current levels to this range reflects the severity of a potential structure break.

Two critical questions will determine which scenario prevails in the coming weeks. First, can Bitcoin maintain weekly closes above $75,000? Second, will the April 2025 low hold as support or give way to selling pressure?

If both the $75,000 level and April 2025 low remain intact, the bullish scenario stays viable. Conversely, breaks below both levels would make the bearish path more probable.

The weekly timeframe chart will provide the clearest signals as these support levels face continued testing.

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