Bitcoin’s Recovery Stalled at $76K: What Will Restart The Rally?

Bitcoin (BTC) struggles to reclaim price highs above $76,000, but analysts say that the uptrend may continue if key conditions are met.

Bitcoin’s 8% climb over the last three days saw it reclaim key levels, including the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $71,000.

“$76K is the level that decides everything,” analyst Crypto Patel said in a Wednesday post on X, adding:

Related: Bitcoin falls to lower support as analysts say markets are ignoring key Iran issue

The analyst further explained that a high-time frame close above $76,000 would open the path toward the $84,000-$96,000 zone, where investors acquired more than 2 million BTC over the last six months, according to Glassnode’s cost basis distribution heatmap.

Echoing this view, trading resource Material Indicators said that “there are multiple levels of technical resistance stacked” between the spot price and a “bonafide $BTC bull market breakout.”

These include the yearly open at $87,500 and the 50-week moving average at $97,000, which must be reclaimed to confirm that the “$BTC bull market has returned,” Material Indicators said in a follow-up post.

The trading resource further pointed out that the relative strength index must close and hold above the 41 level in the weekly time frame. 

Previous occurrences in 2023, 2020 and 2019 have led to 660%, 1,600% and 316% BTC price rallies, respectively.

“Obviously, we are not there yet,” Materials indicators said in a video posted on X, adding:

For analyst Rekt Capital, the BTC/USD pair needs to achieve a weekly close above $72,800 to “confirm a breakout.”

As Cointelegraph reported, the bulls must decisively break above the $76,000-$80,000 range to confirm a trend change.

Optimism needs to return to the BTC market

The bull score index, a measure of Bitcoin’s overall market health that combines fundamental and technical metrics, indicates a significant improvement in market conditions following BTC’s latest move to $76,000. 

The metric increased to 40 on April 15, the highest since late October 2025. This reading remains within neutral territory, reflecting a gradual recovery after a period of relatively weak momentum.

While the bull score index improvement to 40 “reflects relative stability in the market,” it must rise to an area of “strong optimism (above 60), which typically indicates strong bullish conditions,”  CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain said in a Quicktake post, adding:

Meanwhile, demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs remains intermittent, with these investment products recording alternating inflows and outflows after every few days. 

Although the $451 million in net inflows recorded on Tuesday pointed to a return in demand from US investors, persistent positive flows are required to propel BTC price higher.

As Cointelegraph reported, onchain activity is showing “bull market behavior,” with Bitcoin’s daily transaction count reaching 17-month highs, further reinforcing BTC’s upside potential.