DASH Technical Analysis Jan 21

Current market structure state – trend intact or shifting?

Market Structure Overview

DASH is maintaining its overall uptrend structure despite a 24-hour 1.46% decline to its current price of 69.64 USD. Market structure analysis, when examined through higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) patterns, shows a dominant short-term bullish structure. The price is trading above EMA20 (61.00 USD), giving a short-term bullish signal, but is under pressure on the upside due to the Supertrend bearish signal and 98.53 USD resistance. In the multi-timeframe (MTF) structure, a total of 13 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 1 support/4 resistances on 1D, 1 support/2 resistances on 3D, 3 supports/4 resistances on 1W, indicating a resistance-heavy structure in higher timeframes. RSI at 60.79 is in the neutral-bullish zone, and MACD’s positive histogram supports momentum. The structure remains bullish as long as HLs are preserved, but there is a risk of LH (lower high) formation. The key level that would break the market structure is the 65.9450 USD support; below it, CHoCH (Change of Character) could be triggered.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

DASH’s uptrend is confirmed by the recent higher highs and higher lows. For example, the 65.9450 USD level stands out as a strong HL among recent swing lows (score: 78/100). The price holding above this level and surpassing EMA20 indicates that the short-term uptrend is intact. In the HH pattern, the latest swing high at 78.9547 USD (score: 83/100) is critical; breaking above it could bring new HHs and provide trend continuation. MACD’s bullish histogram and RSI above 60 confirm momentum in favor of buyers. In the short term, there is potential to test the 69.8800 USD intermediate resistance, which could open the way to 92.5200 USD in case of success.

Downtrend Risk

The downtrend risk could begin with the price breaking the 65.9450 USD swing low, triggering an LH/LL structure and forming a CHoCH. The Supertrend’s bearish signal and the distant 98.53 USD resistance are limiting on the upside. In MTF, 4 resistance levels on the 1W timeframe increase long-term bearish pressure. BTC’s downtrend also adds risk for altcoins; given DASH’s high correlation with BTC, if BTC loses the 89,168 USD support, LLs in DASH could accelerate. To watch: a close below the 66.31 USD daily low would be an early warning signal.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

Structure break (Break of Structure – BOS) levels confirm trend changes. Bullish BOS: The price breaking and holding above the 78.9547 USD swing high confirms uptrend continuation with a new HH and opens targets at 92.5200 USD, even 150.0000 USD (score: 28). Bearish BOS: Breaking below the 65.9450 USD swing low breaks the HL structure, leading to LLs and pointing to a bearish target of -12.5534 USD (score: 22) – though realistically, a drop to the 61.00 USD EMA is expected. These levels determine the market structure’s directional bias; displacement (rapid movement) is typical after BOS. Traders should use volume and MTF confirmation to distinguish BOS confirmation from false breakouts. The current price of 69.64 USD is in a consolidation zone; a clear BOS is awaited.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

Recent swing highs: 78.9547 USD (strongest, score 83/100) – this is the main resistance testing the validity of the uptrend. A breakout renews HH. 69.8800 USD (score 74/100) is an intermediate level, playing a pivot role in the current consolidation. 92.5200 USD (score 64/100) is a distant target, MTF resistance. These points show the strength of sellers; holding them increases LH risk.

Recent Swing Lows

Recent swing lows: 65.9450 USD (score 78/100) – critical HL, the foundation of the uptrend. Preserving it sustains the bullish structure. Daily range low at 66.31 USD is short-term support. 61.00 USD EMA20 is an additional base. Breaking these levels accelerates structure breakdown and is ideal for stop-loss placements.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC is currently at 90,250 USD with +0.61% change and in a downtrend; main supports at 89,168 USD, 86,756 USD, 84,681 USD. Resistances at 90,972 USD, 92,463 USD, 94,307 USD. BTC Supertrend bearish and rising dominance signal caution for altcoins. DASH is highly correlated with BTC; if BTC loses 89,168 USD, pressure on DASH’s 65.9450 USD increases, and LLs may form. Conversely, if BTC breaks 90,972 USD, DASH’s bullish BOS chance rises. Altcoin traders should prioritize monitoring BTC structure – DASH’s independent movement is limited.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

The structural outlook is bullish: HH/HL intact, price above EMA20. However, MTF resistances and BTC downtrend require caution. Watch for 78.9547 USD BOS for trend continuation, or 65.9450 USD breakdown for reversal. Educational note: Market structure is determined by connections between swing points; it changes with BOS/CHoCH. In the short term, spot DASH Spot Analysis or futures DASH Futures Analysis opportunities can be evaluated. Structures are dynamic; regular MTF checks are essential. (Word count: 1127)