Eli Lilly (LLY) Stock: Wall Street Projects Up to $2.8B in Foundayo Weight-Loss Pill Sales for 2026

TLDR

• The FDA approved Eli Lilly’s once-daily oral weight-loss pill orforglipron, branded Foundayo
• Foundayo will launch April 6 via LillyDirect at $149/month for self-pay customers
• 2026 sales estimates range from $1.5B (Guggenheim) to $2.8B (Citi), with peak sales potentially exceeding $40B
• Lilly has $1.5B in pre-launch inventory to avoid supply issues seen with its injectable drugs
• The average analyst price target on LLY is $1,221, with most analysts rating it Buy or Moderate Buy

Eli Lilly’s long-awaited oral GLP-1 drug has cleared its biggest hurdle. The FDA approved orforglipron — sold as Foundayo — making it the company’s first once-daily weight-loss pill and a direct challenge to Novo Nordisk’s dominance in the space.

In clinical trials, patients on Foundayo lost between 12% and 15% of their body weight. The drug targets the GLP-1 hormone, the same mechanism behind Novo’s Ozempic and Wegovy injections.

Lilly will begin selling Foundayo on April 6 through its LillyDirect platform. Self-pay customers can access the lowest dose for $149 per month — pricing it directly in line with Ozempic.

Eli Lilly and Company, LLY

CEO David Ricks said the company has submitted Foundayo for regulatory approval in more than 40 countries, signaling a broad international rollout is already in motion.

Wall Street’s reaction has been enthusiastic. Analysts are projecting 2026 sales of between $1.5 billion and $2.8 billion, with Citi the most bullish at $2.8B and peak annual sales potentially topping $40 billion. J.P. Morgan sees sales reaching $6 billion by 2027.

Bernstein struck a more cautious near-term tone, pointing out that free sampling, lower initial dosing and pricing dynamics could weigh on early revenue figures, even if prescription volumes ramp up quickly. Weekly new-patient starts will be the number the market watches most closely.

Foundayo also has a manufacturing edge. It’s easier to produce than injectable GLP-1s, which could help Lilly scale faster — particularly in international markets where injectables have faced supply constraints.

Supply Lessons Learned

Lilly says it has built $1.5 billion worth of pre-launch inventory, a direct response to the shortages that plagued its injectable drugs Zepbound and Mounjaro. Those shortages opened the door for U.S. compounding pharmacies to sell copycat versions. Lilly has since taken legal action against compounders and wellness centers selling products claiming to contain tirzepatide.

Novo Nordisk isn’t standing still. The Danish drugmaker has responded with subscription pricing and product adjustments of its own. UBS estimates the two companies’ oral offerings combined could generate about $5 billion in 2026, pointing to a fast-growing new category within obesity treatment.

Morningstar projects that oral obesity drugs could account for roughly a third of a $180 billion global market by 2034.

Acquisition and Analyst Views

Lilly is also acquiring Centessa Pharmaceuticals in a deal initially valued at around $6.3 billion, expanding into sleep-wake disorders and narcolepsy. A law firm has since opened an investor probe into the Centessa sale process, which could introduce some friction before closing.

On the institutional side, Westend Capital Management bought a new position in LLY in Q4, picking up 16,393 shares worth approximately $17.6 million. LLY now makes up about 4.9% of Westend’s portfolio.

Lilly posted Q4 EPS of $7.54, beating estimates of $7.48, with revenue of $19.29 billion against a consensus of $17.85 billion. Revenue was up 42.6% year-over-year. The company set FY2026 EPS guidance of $33.50–$35.00.

Of 30 analysts covering the stock, 23 rate it Buy, four Hold, and one Sell. The average price target sits at $1,221.26.

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