Bitcoin Long-Term Holdings Rise, Indicating Investor Confidence

TLDR

• Bitcoin’s long-term holder supply has turned positive over the past 30 days.
• More Bitcoin is now being held by investors for the long term rather than being sold.
• The change in supply comes from coins aging past six months and entering the long-term holder category.
• Despite the price dropping below $70,000, long-term holders have increased their supply by 308,000 BTC.
• Currently, 29% of long-term holder supply is in loss, which is still below past cycle bottom levels.

Bitcoin (BTC) has seen a shift in long-term holder supply over the past month. Data indicate that investors are holding onto their assets, with long-term supply rising in recent weeks. Despite recent price challenges, this trend shows a change in investor behavior.

Bitcoin Faces Selling Pressure Despite Increased Long-Term Holdings

On April 6, Bitcoin briefly surpassed the $70,000 mark but was unable to sustain this price level, dropping to around $68,000. Despite the downward price action, Bitcoin’s long-term holder supply has flipped positive over the past 30 days. This increase stems from coins transitioning from short-term to long-term holdings as they age past six months.

The rise in long-term holder supply marks a shift in the market, as more Bitcoin is now being retained in wallets. This trend reflects a decision by investors to hold rather than sell their coins. Data from analyst Darkfost confirms this, highlighting a jump from -674,000 BTC to a positive +308,000 BTC over the past 30 days. This shift indicates a growing number of investors holding onto their Bitcoin.

Data Suggests a Long-Term Holding Trend

The increase in Bitcoin’s long-term supply comes from coins that have not been moved for over six months. Darkfost clarified that this data does not necessarily reflect new buying, but rather coins that have simply aged into the long-term holder category. These coins have remained untouched for a significant period, reflecting a preference for holding rather than selling.

According to the analyst, this shift in behavior is notable, as it signals a growing inclination to retain Bitcoin even during periods of low spot demand. Historically, similar changes in long-term holder supply have preceded price increases, although Darkfost cautioned that it is too early to confirm a lasting trend. The current data suggests that more investors are making the choice to hold Bitcoin in anticipation of future gains.

Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply in Loss Still Below Past Cycle Levels

Although long-term holder supply is increasing, a significant portion of this supply remains in loss. At present, 29% of Bitcoin held by long-term investors is in the red. This figure is still well below previous market cycle bottoms, where losses reached 44% to 53%. This suggests that Bitcoin’s market has not yet reached its lowest point, despite the rise in long-term holder supply.

Market analysts, including Ardi, have noted that similar loss levels in previous years, 2015, 2018, and 2022, marked the bottom of market cycles.

While the current loss percentage remains lower, it continues to rise, signaling that Bitcoin may be heading towards new lows. This increase in long-term holders could potentially influence Bitcoin’s price trajectory, but investors remain cautious as the market adjusts.

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