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Bitcoin's massive underperformance to stocks in Q4 bodes well for January, says K33's Lunde

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Bitcoin's massive underperformance to stocks in Q4 bodes well for January, says K33's Lunde

After an active morning Tuesday, bitcoin flattened out in afternoon trading around the $87,500 area, up 2% over the past 24 hours.

By Helene Braun, Krisztian Sandor|Edited by Stephen Alpher
Dec 16, 2025, 8:41 p.m.
Bearish Q4 action could lead to Q1 bull move (CoinDesk)

What to know:

  • Bitcoin held in the $87,500 in U.S. afternoon action on Tuesday, up 2% over the past 24 hours.
  • K33 analyst Vetle Lunde suggested BTC's relative weakness to stocks this quarter could mean rebalancing-led buying once January rolls around.

After an active morning, bitcoin BTC$87,786.94 stayed largely flat in the $87,500 area in U.S. afternoon trade, holding gains around the 2% over the past 24 hours. Altcoins, including ether ETH$2,962.03, XRP$1.9345 and solana SOL$128.18 showed similar upside action.

Crypto-related stocks were also seeing bounces after Monday's plunge, including a 3% gain for Strategy (MSTR) and a 1% advance for Coinbase (COIN).

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Read more: Bitcoin bounces from Monday's worst levels, but sub-$80,000 may come next, analyst says

“Clients are positioned with cautious optimism," said Josh Barkhoarder, head of sales at FalconX. "In the short term, most expect crypto to remain range-bound until we see a clear catalyst, so they’re holding core bitcoin exposure and sitting on cash elsewhere."

BTC may benefit from rebalancing, analyst says

With year-end approaching, bitcoin may benefit from its sluggish performance compared to other asset classes through the quarter as asset managers rebalance their portfolios to maintain their mandated allocation, noted Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33.

Earlier this year, when BTC underperformed the S&P 500 index through the first quarter, it started the next with gains, according to Lunde. Conversely, when BTC outperformed equities in the second quarter, it booked declines in the beginning of the third.

So far in the fourth quarter, bitcoin has underperformed the S&P 500 by a whopping 26%, suggesting that a sizable rebalancing is be due.

"Fund managers with predetermined BTC allocation targets may adjust weights into year-end, potentially resulting in excess inflows during the final trading days of the year and into early January," Lunde continued.

Crypto traders hesitant

Despite prices stabilizing, market participants remain hesitant to take on new risk, K33's Lunde added.

Derivatives activity on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) remains near yearly lows, with BTC futures open interest hovering around 124,000 BTC, he wrote. On perpetual swap markets, funding rates hovered around the neutral rate with open interest showing little movement, signaling lack of short-term directional conviction.

Declining spot crypto trading volumes, down 12% through last week, also confirms that many traders remain reluctant to engage as the year is drawing to a close.

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Bitcoin derivatives point to broad price range play between $85,000-$100,000

BTC options flow points to expectations for a broad range play rather than a massive surge or crash.

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  • Bitcoin's derivatives market shows stability, with strong support at $85,000 and resistance between $95,000 and $100,000.
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