Trading Moment: Ahead of the CPI and Japanese interest rate decisions, Bitcoin bulls and bears are locked in a tug-of-war around $85,000.
Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.
1. Market Observation
In the macro market, spot silver performed strongly, breaking through the $66/ounce mark for the first time in history. Financial website analyst Eamonn Sheridan pointed out that this was a structural rise driven by supply shortages and industrial demand. However, technical analyst Avi Gilburt warned that the gold and silver bull market may end in 2026. Gold is currently trading above $4,300, and a break above the $4,383 resistance level could signal a top and a pullback. Silver's ideal target is $75 to $80. Meanwhile, the US job market released mixed signals. November's non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000, exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, a new high since 2021, and October's data was significantly revised downwards. Goldman Sachs believes this strengthens the rationale for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, predicting that the rate-cutting cycle will continue until 2026, with interest rates potentially falling to 3%. Affected by this, the three major US stock indices showed mixed results. A rebound in technology stocks supported the Nasdaq, and industry giant Muxi Technology surged 750% intraday, briefly surpassing Moore Threads in market capitalization. Looking ahead to key events, the market is closely watching the CPI data to be released on the 18th and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision on the 19th.
Bitcoin's price is hovering between key support levels of $84,000-$85,000 and resistance at $94,000. Among the bulls, Tom Capital believes the recent rally is a "bear trap," and if $85,000 holds, it could squeeze short sellers down to $95,000-$100,000. Donald Dean similarly predicts a potential move towards $95,000, giving a long-term target as high as $131,000. Analyst Astronomer maintains his "overall plan" of $112,000 and expects new buying opportunities in the $80,000 range. However, bearish views are equally strong. KillaXBT took profits at $87,300 and predicts the price will eventually fall to $74,000. Ali Charts warns that a break below $87,000 could see the price slide towards $70,000. From a technical perspective, a "bear flag" pattern has been mentioned multiple times, with a theoretical target of $68,500. Looking at the distribution of shares, analyst Murphy points out that the current 11% share concentration is not yet in the "warning zone" of over 13%, therefore the probability of sharp fluctuations in the short term is low. Furthermore, Wintertermute trader Jjay believes the market is currently in a year-end digestion period rather than a risk-averse phase, and will remain largely driven by macroeconomic factors in the short term.
Ethereum's outlook is even bleaker, with the price struggling to hold above the $3,000 mark. Analyst Manofbitcoin points out that while the price has found support above the upward trend line, the rebound is weak, and as long as the price remains below $3,174, the outlook is bearish. Ali Charts has issued a stern warning, suggesting that if the December closing price is below $2,930, Ethereum could plummet to $2,000, or even $1,100. The market generally considers $2,800 a key support area, and Ted Pillows has observed decent buying activity around this level. However, on-chain activity data shows that declining network fees, weak futures demand, and selling by long-term holders are all contributing to downward pressure. Technical analysis also points to a pessimistic outlook, with a confirmed "bear flag" pattern targeting $2,300, and another "megaphone" pattern, if broken, targeting around $2,376, indicating that Ethereum faces the risk of a deep correction if key support levels are breached.
In the altcoin sector, a "sovereignty declaration" emerged within the Aave community, with some members proposing a "poison pill" plan to regain control of the project, reflecting the tension between the DAO and the development team. Simultaneously, Aave's founder announced that the U.S. SEC had concluded its four-year investigation. Regarding Memecoins, Bubblemaps' analysis indicates that approximately 80% of the $PIPPIN token supply is held by internal addresses, posing a high risk of centralization. PIPPIN recently hit new highs during Bitcoin's volatility, with its market capitalization surpassing $500 million yesterday; however, it has since fallen by nearly 30% following Bubblemaps' report.
2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT, December 17)
(Data source: GMGN, CoinAnk, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)
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Bitcoin: $86,648 (down 7.42% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $45.33 billion.
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Ethereum: $2,933 (down 12.46% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $22.38 billion.
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Fear of Greed Index: 16 (Extreme Fear)
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Average GAS: BTC: 1.2 sat/vB, ETH: 0.04 Gwei
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Market share: BTC 58.5%, ETH 12.4%
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Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: XRP, BTC, ETH, GRS, SOL
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24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 48.92% / 51.08%
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Sector Performance: AI sector fell 2.58%, NFT sector fell 2.33%.
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24-hour liquidation data: A total of 89,931 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $186 million. This included $56.43 million in BTC liquidations, $52.65 million in ETH liquidations, and $6.77 million in SOL liquidations.
3. ETF Flows (as of December 16)
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Bitcoin ETF: -$277 million
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Ethereum ETF: -$224 million, marking the fourth consecutive day of net outflows.
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Solana ETF: +$3.64 million
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XRP ETF: +$8.54 million
4. Today's Outlook
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Binance will delist FIS, REI, and VOXEL on December 17th.
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HASHKEY disclosed IPO details: plans to raise up to HK$1.67 billion, and is expected to list on December 17.
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Binance Wallet announces its 42nd exclusive TGE project: Infrared Finance (IR)
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Coinbase will be performing a system update on December 18th, covering new product launches and important business updates.
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Zhao Changpeng will hold a year-end Q&A event on December 18th.
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Octra will hold a $20 million public token sale on Sonar on December 18th, valuing the company at $200 million.
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US November CPI year-on-year: Expected value 3.1% (December 18, 21:30)
The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: Sky (prev. Maker) up 5%, Pi Network up 5.3%, Morpho up 6.2%, Filecoin up 4.6%, and Maker up 4.3%.
5. Hot News
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Rainbow Token Economics: TGE airdrop accounts for 15%, total supply 1 billion tokens.
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Bitmine is suspected of receiving 48,049 ETH from FalconX, worth approximately $142 million.
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The market still expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice next year.
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The U.S. added 64,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in November, with the unemployment rate at 4.6%.
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Federal Reserve Secretary Bessant: The nominee for Federal Reserve Chair will be announced in early January.
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BlackRock transferred over 47,000 ETH, worth approximately $140 million, to Coinbase.
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Matrixport deposited 1,000 BTC, worth $86.9 million, into Binance.
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Douyin: Non-financial verified accounts are prohibited from posting financial content.
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Tom Lee: The crypto market has 200 times its current potential; the best is yet to come.
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