Pump.fun 2026 Outlook: Where is the path to breaking the deadlock for the King of Memes?

Original article by Simon , Delphi Digital

Mutation: Yuliya, PANews

In its upcoming "2026 App Outlook" report, research firm Delphi Digital identifies Pump.fun as one of the most anticipated consumer apps for the coming year. The report notes that since Delphi Digital's initial analysis of Pump before its funding round, while many predictions have come true, the platform has fallen short of expectations in some areas, disappointing users and investors, and its core challenges remain. To achieve its grander vision, the Pump team must strike a balance between the inherent short-termism of the crypto world and the platform's long-term ambitions. The report further emphasizes that once a project launches its token, its operating environment changes, as the token itself becomes an inherently reflexive product, constantly shaping user expectations—Pump is no exception.

The economic plight of creators and the fleeting popularity of "Bagwork"

Since securing funding, the Pump team has continued to invest in the crypto-native live streaming space, but this has not unfolded as Delphi Digital had hoped, at least not yet.

Pump failed to attract influential creators from outside the crypto ecosystem, and the CCM (Creator Capital Market) model that briefly emerged on Pump quickly faded away. The most notable moment came with the rise of "Bagwork," which highlighted both the potential of creator-driven tokens and exposed the structural problems that still hinder the development of this model.

This breakthrough was spearheaded by a group of teenagers, with some support from Pump. They orchestrated a series of viral stunts: stealing fitness influencer Bradley Martyn's hat, running onto the court during a Dodgers game, crashing into a Knicks game, and even getting tattoos of Pump.fun and Bagwork.

The emergence of "Bagwork" coincided almost perfectly with Pump.fun's peak in mid-September, when the fully diluted valuation (FDV) of the $PUMP token reached approximately $8.5 billion, and the market capitalization of the Bagwork token, $BAGWORK, briefly exceeded $50 million. Since then, no creator coin has come close to or replicated that level of organic growth or peak valuation . The hype surrounding its appearance at the Knicks came long after the initial hype cycle had subsided, and today Bagwork's market capitalization is approximately $2 million.

Bagwork is one of the few examples in Pump's live streaming experiment that truly functioned as expected. The Bagwork team earned over 2,300 SOL in creator revenue through $BAGWORK transaction fees (approximately $300,000 at current prices). Note that all of this was generated without the team selling any of its holdings. This viral hype directly translated into increased attention, trading volume, and fees, creating what Pump has seen to date as the closest thing to a real creator token flywheel effect.

However, aside from Bagwork, Pump has struggled to realize its ambitions in the live streaming space. The continued decline in the value of the Creator Coin brings us back to the structural problem that the token itself is part of the product.

Structural problems and the road ahead

Currently, the economic motivation for holding or backing a streamer coin remains unclear. Bagwork's early success quickly faded, and every major streamer coin since has failed to achieve similar appeal, eventually trending towards zero.

Creators can earn short-term income through CCM's fee structure, but the reputational costs associated with a constantly depreciating token make this model unattractive to more established influencers who can help reach a wider audience. From a trader's perspective, these tokens remain a zero-sum game environment, not a genuine community.

This is the most important problem Pump needs to solve as we head into 2026.

The team has yet to conduct meaningful experiments on deeper creator incentives, and its airdrop allocations remain unused. Aside from informal support during Bagwork's rise to fame, Pump has made no coordinated attempts at targeted airdrops, creator rewards, or other incentive mechanisms. These mechanisms could have been used to guide early activity, create more PvE (player versus environment) incentives, and give creators room to experiment without immediately destroying their communities.

The good news is that this gives Pump a lot of options. The unused “Community and Ecosystem Initiative” pool is a significant lever the team can utilize once the model is ready. If Pump can design a sustainable incentive structure for creator tokens, it will unlock a whole new economic category for creators looking to leverage crypto to monetize and expand their audience. Its upside potential is real, but until then, live streaming will continue to exist as a series of short-lived hype cycles rather than a lasting, repeatable business vertical.

Token Economics and Market Performance

Regarding the token, the main catalyst for the rebound in the price of $PUMP from approximately $0.025 to $0.085 was the team's decision to use 100% of the net proceeds for buybacks.

After the market made it clear that a partial buyback strategy would not pay off, Pump shifted from initially planning to allocate only about a quarter of its revenue to buybacks to essentially adopting a model completely similar to Hyperliquid's. In a illiquid and harsh altcoin environment, this shift helped ignite one of the strongest large-cap token rallies of the year.

Looking at the buyback-to-market-cap ratio, no major token currently offers a lower trading multiple than $PUMP. Based on current data, Pump's annualized revenue is $422 million, while its market capitalization is $1.84 billion, implying a market capitalization/revenue multiple (MC/Rev) of 4.36x and an annualized buyback yield of approximately 12.8%. These levels are significantly lower than all other large-cap tokens, including Hyperliquid with approximately 8.01x MC/Rev and a yield of approximately 3.34%.

Even so, the market remains skeptical about Pump's long-term business trajectory. Concerns may include: the team's ability to continue launching meaningful products, the impact of future token unlocks (approximately 40% of the supply remains locked), and uncertainty surrounding how airdrops and creator incentive distributions will ultimately be implemented. Furthermore, the general contraction of Memecoin and terminal activities, along with ongoing questions about the sustainability of Pump's revenue base, exacerbates these concerns.

Despite these concerns, Pump continues to dominate the Memecoin launch platform space, earning (and repurchasing) approximately $1 million per day even in extremely challenging market conditions. Its daily launch platform revenue has declined by nearly 85% from a peak of almost $14 million per day at the beginning of the year to around $2 million per day today, but competitors, aside from brief challenges, have failed to substantially shake Pump's position. This aligns with Delphi Digital's initial report's predictions during the Bonk and Raydium challenger phase: even in the face of cyclical volume compression, Pump maintains a structurally dominant share of industry activity.

Strategic Trends and Future Direction

The acquisition of Padre indicates Pump's intention to move beyond Solana, reach multi-chain users, and leverage Padre's front-end to support BNB ecosystem assets. This aligns with Delphi Digital's earlier prediction that Pump would eventually acquire an endpoint or endpoint-related asset to strengthen its traffic entry point and integrate more user journeys. However, aside from these moves, the team has remained low-key. An investor call has been scheduled but has not yet taken place at the time of writing, so more concrete information may be forthcoming.

Pump's leadership has also expressed interest in the broader ICM (Internet Capital Markets) category, but this is not a core area for Delphi Digital, nor does it align with Pump's current core identity or product strengths. Believe was the first to attempt this model but failed to gain real traction, while MetaDAO has since become the dominant player in the "high-quality founders + community" fundraising space. ICM also clashes with Pump's brand image in terms of culture and structure, which is built on speculation, speed, and a creator meme culture, rather than a long-term governance or prophetic governance system.

To succeed in the ICM space, Pump needs to delve deeper into heavily governed structures and attract non-crypto teams looking to operate on-chain, which isn't where most of Pump's current users or creators are located. While there is theoretically room for growth if teams are seriously committed, I believe this is a secondary or alternative direction, rather than a natural extension of the existing flywheel effect that Pump will have by 2026.

Looking ahead to 2026, key questions revolve around whether Pump can finally create an incentive-consistent model for creator tokens , whether it can meaningfully scale to multi-chain markets through Padre, how to manage token unlocking and declining revenue visibility, and which product vertical it will choose as its most aggressive entry point. Currently, its strategy appears to be spread across multiple levels, from live streaming to ICM to mobile. At some point, the team may need to identify a primary entry point, and for most of 2025, that entry point seems to be live streaming. Now, that's becoming less clear.

Potential breakthrough: iGaming and mobile devices

The bigger question is whether Pump can still attract a larger number of non-crypto creators . This may require reshaping the creator token flywheel and introducing stronger, longer-term incentives to maintain its viral potential beyond the crypto-native community. The original elements are already there. In 2025, Bagwork's operation gave Delphi Digital a glimpse of what this model would look like if it succeeded, at which point Pump seemed close to crossing the chasm.

Pump also has significant room to expand its product suite. One strategic direction the team should seriously consider is entering the iGaming or casino-related vertical; a Kick/Stake-like model that naturally aligns with Pump's speculative-driven user base. This would create deep synergies with its memecoin and live streaming ambitions, and the category's monetization potential is already proven. Shuffle's net gaming revenue and weekly lottery distribution demonstrate just how big this opportunity can be when executed correctly.

Pump's mobile app is another underutilized strength . Deeper promotion on mobile can broaden traffic sources, making the product more accessible to mainstream users and providing creators with more monetization opportunities. Combined with iGaming, this would meaningfully expand Pump's potential user base while reinforcing the platform's already proven strengths.

Despite the uncertainties, Pump remains one of the most resilient consumer applications in this cycle , maintaining its dominance even as the broader macro environment shifts. Substantial progress in either direction could catalyze a meaningful market sentiment reset and pave the way for Pump to achieve broader breakthroughs beyond the crypto-native community.