Handelaren op Polymarket rekenen dit jaar niet op een explosieve bitcoinrally. De kans dat Bitcoin (BTC) vóór het einde van het jaar 150.000 dollar bereikt, schattenHandelaren op Polymarket rekenen dit jaar niet op een explosieve bitcoinrally. De kans dat Bitcoin (BTC) vóór het einde van het jaar 150.000 dollar bereikt, schatten

Populaire gokmarkt ziet slechts 21 procent kans op Bitcoin van $150.000 in 2026

4 min read
Handelaren op Polymarket rekenen dit jaar niet op een explosieve bitcoinrally. De kans dat Bitcoin (BTC) vóór het einde van het jaar 150.000 dollar bereikt, schatten zij op slechts 21 procent. Dat staat in scherp contrast met analisten die spreken over een vertraagde bullmarkt en koersdoelen die pas in 2026 echt ambitieus worden. Juist dat spanningsveld maakt de cijfers van Polymarket interessant. In de actuele markt “Welke prijs bereikt Bitcoin voor 2027?” domineren de schappelijke voorspellingen. De populairste uitkomst is een bitcoinprijs van 100.000 dollar. Die grens hebben we inmiddels al meerdere keren doorbroken. Die krijgt ongeveer 80 procent kans. Hogere niveaus verliezen snel steun. 120.000 dollar noteert 45 procent, 130.000 dollar 35 procent en 140.000 dollar 28 procent. Bij 150.000 dollar blijft nog maar een vijfde van de handelaren over. Dit zijn geen vrijblijvende voorspellingen. Dit zijn weddenschappen met geld, geplaatst door speculanten die hun risico scherp afwegen. Check onze Discord Connect met "like-minded" crypto enthousiastelingen Leer gratis de basis van Bitcoin & trading - stap voor stap, zonder voorkennis. Krijg duidelijke uitleg & charts van ervaren analisten. Sluit je aan bij een community die samen groeit. Nu naar Discord Polymarket laat zien wat handelaren echt durven inzetten Dat onderscheid is essentieel. Banken en onderzoeksbureaus publiceren koersdoelen op basis van scenario’s en aannames. Polymarket dwingt tot een keuze. Wie hier meedoet, zet kapitaal op een concrete uitkomst binnen een afgebakende periode. Daarmee fungeert Polymarket minder als koersmodel en meer als thermometer voor marktsentiment. En die thermometer wijst momenteel niet op euforie, maar op terughoudendheid. Die houding past bij de bredere onzekerheid in de markt. De bekende vierjarige cyclus rond de bitcoin-halving verliest aan voorspellende waarde. Bitcoin sloot 2025 bovendien zwakker af dan veel handelaren hadden verwacht. Voor actieve speculanten is dat geen reden om bearish te worden, maar wel om minder agressief te spelen. Bitcoin is al lang meer dan kopen en wachten De cijfers krijgen pas echt betekenis als je kijkt naar hoe mensen tegenwoordig op bitcoin inzetten. De simpele strategie van kopen en wachten op hogere prijzen is slechts één van de opties. De markt is complexer geworden. Beleggers en traders kiezen onder meer voor: Het kopen van bitcoin met vooraf vastgestelde verkoopdoelen. Bedrijven blijven dat ook stug doen, met Strategy voorop. Futures- en optieposities om te profiteren van kortetermijnbewegingen. Derivaten zijn populair: in 2025 ging het om ruim $86 biljoen (!) dollar. Voorspellingsmarkten zoals Polymarket, waar men gokt op specifieke prijsniveaus. Polymarket hoort duidelijk bij die laatste categorie. Voorzichtige odds wijzen erop dat handelaren weinig vertrouwen hebben in snelle, extreme koerssprongen. Analisten kijken verder vooruit dan gokmarkten Tegelijkertijd blijven veel analisten positief. Grote partijen zoals Standard Chartered, Strategy en Bernstein noemen een bitcoinprijs van 150.000 dollar haalbaar, maar vrijwel altijd met 2026 als tijdshorizon. Ook macro-economische verwachtingen spelen mee. De aankomende benoeming van een nieuwe voorzitter van de Federal Reserve door Donald Trump voedt speculatie over renteverlagingen. Lagere rentes ondersteunen traditioneel risicovolle activa zoals crypto. Die verwachting werkte eind 2025 al door in de goud- en zilverprijs, die nieuwe records bereikten. Bitcoin bleef achter. Voor bulls is dat uitgestelde kracht. Voor Polymarket-gebruikers is het vooral een reden om hun inzetten te beperken. Verschillende verhalen Ook nieuwe Amerikaanse cryptowetgeving, waaronder de GENIUS Act en de CLARITY Act, geldt voor veel analisten als potentiële katalysator. Meer duidelijkheid kan institutioneel kapitaal aantrekken. Voorspellingsmarkten kijken echter niet naar narratieven, maar naar waarschijnlijkheid binnen een vaste periode. Dat verklaart waarom extreme koersdoelen, zoals de 200.000 tot 250.000 dollar die Tom Lee van Fundstrat noemt, nauwelijks steun krijgen op Polymarket. Niet omdat ze onmogelijk zijn, maar omdat ze niet snel genoeg worden geacht. Polymarket laat vooral zien hoe verschillend tijdshorizons in de markt worden gewogen. Waar analisten vooruitkijken naar 2026 en verder, richten gebruikers van voorspellingsmarkten zich op de kans dat een specifiek prijsniveau binnen een beperkte periode wordt gehaald. De lage odds voor 150.000 dollar zeggen daarmee minder over het langetermijnvertrouwen in bitcoin en meer over de terughoudendheid van handelaren op de korte termijn. In een markt met futures, opties en gokmarkten kiezen veel deelnemers liever voor waarschijnlijkheid dan voor maximale upside. Best wallet - betrouwbare en anonieme wallet Best wallet - betrouwbare en anonieme wallet Meer dan 60 chains beschikbaar voor alle crypto Vroege toegang tot nieuwe projecten Hoge staking belongingen Lage transactiekosten Best wallet review Koop nu via Best Wallet Let op: cryptocurrency is een zeer volatiele en ongereguleerde investering. Doe je eigen onderzoek.

Het bericht Populaire gokmarkt ziet slechts 21 procent kans op Bitcoin van $150.000 in 2026 is geschreven door Robin Heester en verscheen als eerst op Bitcoinmagazine.nl.

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