PENDLE Technical Analysis Jan 24

Volume story – what participation tells us about conviction

Volume Profile and Market Participation

PENDLE’s 24-hour trading volume was realized at the 48.02 million dollar level. This volume is below the last 7-day average volume (approximately 65 million dollars) and 33% lower compared to the last 30-day average (72 million dollars). During this period when the price experienced a 6.96% decline, the decrease in volume shows that selling pressure occurred without broad market participation. Low volume during downward movements may signal a controlled pullback rather than panic selling.

According to volume profile analysis, the current price level is around $2.02, with the value area (high volume region) concentrated in the $2.00-$2.10 range. Within this range, the Point of Control (POC) is at $2.05, and the price could test this level. The volume profile shows a structure filled with low volume bars (low volume nodes) in recent weeks, emphasizing the need for volume confirmation for an upward breakout. When market participation is weak, retail traders’ selling may be absorbed by large players – a classic accumulation pattern.

In recent down moves (rebound from $2.47 resistance), volume was 40% lower compared to up moves. This divergence indicates that the price decline lacks conviction and could be a healthy correction. If the decline continues without increasing volume, the trend may weaken.

Accumulation or Distribution?

Accumulation Signals

Accumulation signals are clear in PENDLE: Volume decrease on declines (today’s $48M is the lowest in the last 3 days), despite price falling below EMA20 ($2.07), volume cliffs (sudden volume cutoffs) are observed. This suggests institutions are accumulating at the bottom. On the 1D timeframe, 2 strong support levels ($2.0091 score 68/100, $1.8752 score 64/100) are supported by volume – there have been high volume spikes here in the past.

There are 14 strong levels in Multi-timeframe (MTF) volume context: 1D 2S/4R, 3D 1S/4R, 1W 2S/5R. Supports on the weekly are reinforced by volume, which is bullish for long-term accumulation. RSI at 46.46 is close to oversold, MACD is bearish but the histogram is narrowing negatively – high reversal potential with volume divergence.

Distribution Risks

Distribution warnings are also present: If the $2.0666 resistance (score 77/100) is broken without volume, it could be a trap. If price rose with low volume in recent upticks (seen in previous weeks), smart money might be exiting. Bearish target $1.1295 (score 22) could be tested with volume increase, but currently no conviction for distribution – volume is low.

Price-Volume Alignment

Price is in a downtrend (Supertrend bearish, $2.47 resistance), but volume does not confirm the price action. While the decline is nearly 7%, volume is below average – in a healthy downtrend, volume should increase, here it’s decreasing so unhealthy (weak). Price below EMA20, but volume on downs is low, on ups (previous recovery) it was high. This divergence signals a price bottom: Declines cannot be sustained without volume confirmation.

Educational note: A healthy bear move comes with increasing volume (distribution). Here it’s the opposite: Low volume downs, potential accumulation. We expect a volume spike at $2.0091 support – if broken, bearish confirmation, if held, bullish.

Big Player Activity

Big player patterns: High volume bars in the last 3 days in $2.10-$2.20 range (likely whale absorption). According to chain data (indirectly), exchange outflows have increased – holding signal. Institutional activity is creating volume walls at MTF resistances ($2.2080, $2.3900), but absorption at supports. We don’t know exact positions, but patterns favor accumulation: Low volume sell-offs show smart money sees opportunity.

Volume delta analysis: Buy volume lower than sell volume but stabilizing – classic signal before reversal.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $89,564 +0.10% slightly positive, but Supertrend bearish and dominance increase caution for altcoins. PENDLE highly correlated to BTC (%0.85), if BTC supports $88,362-$86,569 tested, PENDLE could slip below $2.00. If BTC resistance $89,608 breaks, rotation to PENDLE $2.47 possible. Key BTC levels: Support below $88k breakout triggers PENDLE bearish target $1.13; resistance above $91k altseason signal. BTC downtrend continuation supports volume accumulation in PENDLE – decoupling possible.

Volume-Based Outlook

Volume-based outlook: Short-term bearish but conviction low – if $2.0091 support holds, bullish reversal ($3.1736 target score 25). Wait for volume increase: $50M+ volume on upside breakout. Risk: Continued volume-less decline is distribution. Overall: Accumulation weighted, requires patience. PENDLE Spot Analysis and PENDLE Futures Analysis links.

Educational summary: Volume tells a story beyond price. Here low volume downs, accumulation whispering – listen.