FET Technical Analysis Jan 28

FET market structure is holding firm in the downtrend; the latest LH/LL pattern keeps the bearish structure intact, but a BOS above $0.2299 could trigger a rally.

Market Structure Overview

FET’s current market structure reflects a clear downtrend. With the current price positioned at $0.23, the 24-hour change of +%1.39 shows slight recovery, but the overall structure remains bearish. Instead of higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL), a lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) pattern dominates; this indicates the trend is continuing downward. Multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis identifies 10 strong levels across 1D/3D/1W timeframes: 2 supports/1 resistance on 1D, 1S/1R on 3D, and 2S/4R distribution on 1W, putting the bearish bias front and center. Supertrend is giving a bearish signal with no close above EMA20 ($0.24); RSI at 40.59 is neutral-bearish, MACD shows a negative histogram. The market is testing the $0.2228 swing low; a break here would expect an LL extension to $0.1919. Structural integrity holds as long as it stays below the latest LH at $0.2299.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

For an uptrend, an HH/HL structure must form. It doesn’t exist yet; however, a break and close above the $0.2299 swing high (bullish BOS) followed by holding above the first HL at $0.2228 would target the $0.28 Supertrend resistance. This would be a CHoCH (Change of Character) signal, opening the door to a $0.3260 bullish continuation target. An RSI bounce above 40 and MACD histogram turning positive would support it. Still weak; the last 24h +%1.39 recovery stayed limited within the $0.22-$0.23 range.

Downtrend Risk

The downtrend is confirmed by LH/LL: LLs deepen as long as it stays below the latest LH at $0.2299. A break below $0.2228 (75/100 score) swing low targets the next LL at $0.1919 (60/100). Bearish short-term structure below EMA20, Supertrend resistance at $0.28 is distant. MTF shows 1W with 4 resistance weights, strengthening bearish momentum. MACD negative, a drop below RSI 40 increases selling pressure; bearish breakdown extends to $0.1189.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

BOS (Break of Structure) levels are critical: For bullish BOS, a daily close above $0.2299 (67/100 score swing high) is required; this invalidates the LH and initiates HL hunting. CHoCH confirmation starts a trend reversal. Bearish BOS is a close below $0.2228; LL confirmation accelerates the drop to $0.1919. $0.28 Supertrend is major picture resistance; if unbroken, downtrend intact. These levels invalidate the structure: Upper BOS=downtrend break, lower BOS=continuation.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Latest Swing Highs

Latest swing high $0.2299 (67/100) acts as resistance as an LH. This is the BOS level; failure to hold above reinforces the LH pattern. Previous swing highs form an LH series, combining with resistance cluster to $0.28. A breakout, with volume increase, triggers HH hunting; absence keeps it bearish.

Latest Swing Lows

Latest swing low $0.2228 (75/100) is strong support; holding it gives HL hope but a break extends LL. $0.1919 (60/100) is secondary support; aligned on MTF 1D/3D. These lows define the downtrend base; if unprotected, it leads to $0.1189 bearish target. Swing lows should be monitored for support tests.

Bitcoin Correlation

FET is a highly correlated altcoin with BTC; BTC at $89,203 is in a downtrend, Supertrend bearish. If BTC key supports $89,180/$87,877/$85,998 break, altcoin selling deepens, pressuring FET’s $0.2228. If BTC recovers above resistances $89,567/$91,310, FET finds short-term relief, increasing $0.2299 BOS chances. BTC dominance rise crushes alts; BTC below $85,998 heightens FET bearish breakdown risk. If BTC stays stable, FET’s internal dynamics take center stage. Details available in FET Spot Analysis and FET Futures Analysis.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

FET structure is bearish; LH/LL downtrend intact, $0.2299 BOS not expected. Hold at $0.2228 means consolidation, break targets $0.1919 LL. Bullish requires $0.2299+volume BOS; needs BTC support. Risk management: Stop-loss at swing lows. Market structures are dynamic; monitor MTF levels. Lack of news increases technical dominance. Long-term, 1W resistances dominant; short-term bearish outlook preserved.