Bitcoin RSI Warning Coincided with ETF Outflows and $80K Test

Key Insights

• The Weekly Bitcoin Relative Strength Index hovered near levels that marked prior bear-market bottoms.
• Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF) recorded $2.7 billion net outflows since Jan. 16.
• Options data and futures liquidations reflected elevated downside fear and fragile $80,000 support.

The Bitcoin RSI data warned traders as BTC retested $81,000 this week. The price fell by more than 10% between Wednesday and Thursday, sources said. Traders questioned $80,000 support as risk appetite cooled.

The setup mattered because Bitcoin RSI historically neared bottoms only after deeper oversold readings. Weekly Relative Strength Index sat at 36.78, the analysis noted. That reading stayed below the 50 line, a seller-controlled zone.

Bitcoin RSI Edged Toward Historic Bear Levels

The weekly Relative Strength Index stayed below 50, the analysis noted. That level often acted as resistance during downtrends. Sellers dominated momentum as the indicator hovered near oversold territory.

The analysis cited 30 as the key oversold threshold. It said the weekly Relative Strength Index only confirmed bear bottoms below 30. It cited 29.73 on Dec. 10, 2018.

The same source cited a deeper extreme during the 2022 bear cycle. It said the weekly Relative Strength Index printed 25.74 between June 4 and July 13, 2022. It argued today’s 36.78 increased odds of a sharper downside first.

The source framed three pillars for reading the signal. It said divergences warned of reversals when the price diverged. Moreover, it said swing failures flagged weakening momentum after failed extremes.

It also tied the 50 line to trend strength. The analysis said the 50 line acted as support in uptrends. It said breaks could confirm sentiment shifts.

Bitcoin RSI Met ETF Outflows and Derivatives Fear

Macro events also shaped the move, the price-action note said. It said Bitcoin closed near $89,200 after the Jan. 28, 2025, FOMC. It said Bitcoin then fell 9% to $81,000 the next day.

The same source said Federal Reserve meetings triggered fast repricing in 2025. It said traders repeatedly adjusted positions after rate decisions. It linked that pattern to higher sensitivity around policy dates.

Another source tied the latest drop to fund flows and cross-market moves. It said spot Bitcoin ETF saw $2.7 billion net outflows since Jan. 16. Those outflows equaled 2.3% of assets under management, citing CoinGlass.

The same report said gold prices fell 13% from a Wednesday all-time high. It said gold still gained 18% over three months. It said some investors favored gold as a store of value.

Derivatives data reinforced the cautious mood, the report said. Bitcoin options delta skew rose to 17% on Friday. It cited Deribit data via Laevitas and said fear looked extreme.

The report also quantified the wipeout in leverage. It said liquidations hit about $860 million between Thursday and Friday. Bitcoin futures open interest fell to $46 billion on Thursday, according to CoinGlass.

It said open interest previously reached $58 billion three months earlier. The report argued the decline showed a leverage reset. It said that a purge could leave markets healthier.

The report checked stablecoin demand for more clues. It compared Tether against Chinese yuan and U.S. dollar levels. It said stablecoins often traded at a 0.5% to 1% premium.

As per the report, the premium turned into a 0.2% discount, citing OKX data. It said last week showed a 1% discount. It framed that shift as moderate outflows easing slightly.

Quantum Computing Debate Added Another Risk Layer

Some traders also focused on long-term security concerns, the report said. It said Coinbase formed an independent advisory board on quantum risks. It said Coinbase planned public research by early 2027.

Jefferies added fuel to the debate, the report said. It said Jefferies removed Bitcoin from its flagship portfolio. It said Jefferies cited long-term security concerns tied to quantum computing.

Cryptographer Adam Back pushed back, the report said. It said Back predicted no material quantum risk for a decade. It said Back argued the technology stayed early-stage.

Back also rejected theft claims from partial cryptography breaks, the report said. It said Back argued such breaks would not enable Bitcoin theft. It framed the disagreement as unresolved anxiety, not a confirmed threat.

A separate market post amplified crash rhetoric. ShawnCT_ warned Bitcoin could fall 66% to $28,000. He cited past drawdowns from 2017 and 2021 peaks.

Bitcoin RSI Left Traders Watching $87K and $80K

The report said Bitcoin needed to reclaim $87,000 for bullish momentum. It tied that level to shifting derivatives hedges. It said macro fear also pushed demand for cash and short-term Treasuries.

Bitcoin RSI remained the near-term technical trigger from the price-action note. It said prior bear bottoms appeared only after sub-30 readings. It left traders watching whether momentum cracked lower before stabilizing.