The scorecard for an XRP investment thesis that separates Ripple licensing from XRPL utility signals

Ripple enters 2026 with new permissions in the UK and the EU.

In January, Ripple said it received UK Financial Conduct Authority permissions covering an Electronic Money Institution (EMI) license and cryptoasset registration.

On Feb. 2, it said it received full EMI approval in Luxembourg.

But what does that really mean for XRP investors?

Ripple’s own standardized XRPL “snapshot” tables effectively stop at Q1 2025 (when it said it would sunset the XRP Markets Report in its current form), so 2026 “utility” narratives should be tested against fresher third-party research and live XRPL dashboards, most recently benchmarks like Messari’s Q3 2025 network review, rather than year-old quarter-over-quarter comps.

Key takeaways

• Ripple’s licensing progress is a company-level distribution enabler, and it still needs observable conversion into XRPL activity before “utility” becomes an XRP demand claim.
• With Ripple sunsetting its quarterly XRP Markets Report tables after Q1 2025, a more current XRPL checkpoint comes from third-party research such as Messari’s Q3 2025 snapshot, which said average daily transactions rose 8.9% QoQ (1.6M to 1.8M) and total new addresses rose 46.3% QoQ to 447,200.
• Cross-border payments modernization remains slow at the system level, with the BIS saying end-2027 targets are off pace and the FSB saying global outcomes have not translated into tangible improvements.
• XRP’s 2026 tape can remain sensitive to liquidity conditions, after the Fed held its key rate unchanged at about 3.6% in January.

Who this is for

• Long-term holders who want a checklist that separates Ripple distribution from XRPL usage.
• Swing traders who trade legal and licensing headlines but want on-chain confirmation gates.
• Institutional and treasury readers tracking payments rails, licensing, and settlement pathways.

What to watch this quarter

• XRPL activity trend versus the last disclosed benchmark (transactions, new wallets, fees burned, DEX volume).
• Operational readiness signals, including whether validators and operators remain current on core node releases such as rippled 3.0.0.
• Regulatory-to-usage conversion evidence, using the funnel from licensing to onboarding to routing choices to XRPL settlement.
• Macro payments backdrop on cost, speed, and access targets, including the BIS and FSB progress language.

What XRPL is (and what “utility” can realistically mean)

XRPL is a public ledger with its own node software lifecycle. Network maintenance can matter to both uptime and the credibility of any “enterprise-grade” narrative. According to XRPL.org, version 3.0.0 of rippled was released on Dec. 9, 2025.

The site urged server operators to upgrade “as soon as possible.” In an investor thesis, “utility” needs a definition that survives headline cycles.

Ripple’s markets reports provide a monitoring template by publishing four buckets that can be tracked as a group: transactions, new wallets, XRP burned in fees, and DEX volume.

Ripple vs XRPL (who does what), why licenses do not equal token demand

Ripple’s 2026 regulatory updates sit at the company layer.

Ripple said it received FCA permissions in the UK covering an EMI license and cryptoasset registration on Jan. 9, 2026.

Ripple also said it received preliminary EMI approval in Luxembourg on Jan. 14, 2026.

It later said it received full EMI approval in Luxembourg on Feb. 2, 2026.

A forward-looking framework treats those permissions as the first step in a conversion funnel that can be audited over time.

The funnel can break at routing choices, since a payments business can route value in ways that do not require XRP on-ledger settlement.

The investable question for 2026 is whether licensing-driven distribution expands XRPL usage in the specific on-chain buckets that can be tracked.

Demand drivers in 2026: payments reality, liquidity regime, and headline beta

At the macro payments layer, the baseline remains slow reform rather than fast step-change.

The Financial Stability Board’s 2025 consolidated progress report said efforts have not translated into “tangible improvements” globally, and that costs remain “sticky.”

The Bank for International Settlements wrote in a December 2025 bulletin that end-2027 cross-border payment targets were off pace.

It also said improvements were “modest.”

Stablecoins remain a competing settlement narrative with its own constraints.

The IMF said stablecoins can improve payments and global finance, while warning about risks including currency substitution and reduced control over capital flows.

In markets, liquidity conditions can still dominate medium-term performance for higher-beta assets. The Fed held its key rate unchanged at about 3.6% in a January decision.

For XRP, the 2026 read-through is mechanical.

If rates and volatility conditions tighten, headline-driven rallies may face a higher bar to persist without on-chain confirmation.

XRPL’s institutional roadmap headlines can influence narrative flow.

They still require ledger-level confirmation to become an “utility drives price” claim, including Ripple’s institutional-focused roadmap for XRPL and XRPL’s proposed upgrades for institutional DeFi.

What to track in 2026: XRPL metrics dashboard and narrative-to-metric checks

Ripple’s last disclosed quarter-over-quarter comparison provides a benchmark for what “cooling” looked like after a spike.

In Messari’s State of XRP Ledger Q3 2025 report, the firm said multiple key network metrics increased quarter over quarter, including average daily transactions rising from 1.6 million to 1.8 million.

It also reported quarter-over-quarter declines in transaction-fee burn (in XRP) and DEX activity, providing a more recent “cooling vs. re-acceleration” frame for 2026 monitoring.

Metrics dashboard

Messari reported total new addresses rising 46.3% QoQ to 447,200 in Q3 2025, alongside average daily transactions rising from 1.6 million to 1.8 million.

That move provides a more current onboarding and throughput reference point for “utility” discussions heading into 2026 than older quarter-pair comparisons.

Ripple also said it would sunset the XRP Markets Report “in its current form” starting in Q2 2025, meaning its prior on-chain tables should be treated as a closed historical series rather than a living quarterly benchmark.

The shift makes methodology continuity a first-order check: don’t splice Ripple’s legacy tables together with third-party series without explicitly normalizing definitions and data sources.

Those details are in Ripple’s Q1 2025 XRP Markets Report and Messari’s Q3 2025 XRPL report.

Narrative-to-metric mapping (audit trail)

• “Licensing unlocks usage” should show up as a multi-metric trend, including transactions and fees burned, plus new wallets if onboarding expands participation.
• “XRPL DeFi liquidity is improving” should show up in DEX volume alongside activity metrics, using the same reporting-methodology caveats.

Bull, base, and bear cases

Bull signposts: licensing tailwinds coincide with sustained, multi-quarter re-acceleration across transactions, new wallets, fees burned, and DEX volume.

The licensing leg is observable through Ripple’s UK and Luxembourg updates, and the on-chain leg is observable through the metrics framework in its markets reports.

Base signposts: Ripple expands regulated distribution, while XRPL activity stabilizes near a post-spike range.

XRP trades as a liquidity- and headline-sensitive asset under the Fed’s pause-rate context.

Bear signposts: cross-border payments modernization stays slow under BIS and FSB progress language.

Stablecoins draw payment attention within the IMF’s risk framework, and XRPL activity fails to re-accelerate under tighter risk appetite.

Red flags and invalidation (what breaks the thesis)

• Methodology discontinuity: Ripple’s note that it updated on-chain data sources, which “may result in slight discrepancies,” can invalidate naive quarter-to-quarter comparisons.
• Narrative-only rallies: licensing or legal headlines that do not align with multi-metric XRPL follow-through across transactions, wallets, fees burned, and DEX volume.
• Macro mismatch: payments adoption claims that ignore BIS and FSB progress language risk overstating near-term conversion from infrastructure plans to global cost and speed outcomes.

Common misconceptions and an action checklist for 2026 monitoring

Misconception: “Ripple licensing means XRP demand.”

Ripple’s permissions describe what the company can do in regulated markets, and the token-demand claim requires a second step that is observable on XRPL via activity metrics.

Misconception: “Ripple equals XRPL.”

XRPL has its own operational cadence, and XRPL.org’s rippled 3.0.0 upgrade guidance is a reminder that network reliability is its own track.

Action checklist and routine

• Weekly: log risk appetite inputs tied to the Fed rate regime, since the AP described the policy rate as unchanged at about 3.6% as of late January.
• Monthly: update an XRPL dashboard using Ripple’s four buckets as a consistent template, and flag any methodology notes before comparing trends.
• Quarterly: re-run the licensing-to-ledger funnel, mapping Ripple’s jurisdictional permissions to observable routing and activity outcomes, and keep the conclusion conditional until the on-chain leg confirms.

For 2026, XRP-related narratives reduce to whether regulated distribution converts into sustained XRPL usage.

That test plays out under a payments system that global bodies still describe as slow to change.

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