Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews. 1. Market Observation Japanese markets were buoyed by Sanae Takashi's historic election victor Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews. 1. Market Observation Japanese markets were buoyed by Sanae Takashi's historic election victor

Trading Moments: Japanese, South Korean, and A-shares surge; gold and silver rebound; Bitcoin needs to hold above 70,000 for a sustained rebound.

2026/02/09 15:46
8 min read

Daily market data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.

1. Market Observation

Japanese markets were buoyed by Sanae Takashi's historic election victory, with expectations of expansionary fiscal policies and a resurgence of the so-called "Takashi trade." The Nikkei 225 index surged over 5% intraday, breaking the 57,000 mark for the first time and setting a new record high. South Korea's KOSPI index also jumped 4.1%. However, the expectation of fiscal stimulus also put pressure on the bond market, with yields on both 10-year and 30-year Japanese government bonds rising across the board. The yen, after a brief period of strength, also faced the risk of intervention.

Trading Moments: Japanese, South Korean, and A-shares surge; gold and silver rebound; Bitcoin needs to hold above 70,000 for a sustained rebound.

Turning our attention to the US, while the S&P 500 rebounded 2% on Friday, Goldman Sachs' trading team warned that selling pressure, driven by trend-following algorithmic funds (CTAs), remains. A drop below 6707 points could trigger a systemic sell-off of up to $80 billion within a month. Coupled with weakening liquidity and a negative gamma pattern in the options market, market volatility could intensify. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett's "Bull/Bear Indicator" also surged to a sell signal of 9.6, recommending "going long on Main Street and short on Wall Street," meaning funds should be withdrawn from tech giants and cryptocurrencies and redirected to small-cap stocks benefiting from the real economy's recovery and international markets. He warned that the massive capital expenditures of tech giants are fundamentally changing their business models, and the global market may be entering a rebalancing era that ends "American exceptionalism." Meanwhile, US Treasury yields continued to climb, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.242%.

JPMorgan analyst Jason Hunter, specializing in commodities, points out that major metals such as gold, silver, and copper will enter a "consolidation period" after a period of frenzied price increases. However, he believes this is a necessary pause in a long-term bull market and predicts that copper, supported by the global manufacturing cycle, will rebound ahead of gold in the second quarter, while crude oil is expected to fluctuate between $60 and $70. Specifically, after returning to the $5,000 mark, spot gold faces resistance in the $5,100-$5,150 area, with key support at $4,264-$4,381. While spot silver prices are fluctuating, retail investors are still pouring funds into silver ETFs. The Guotou Silver LOF, after five consecutive days of limit-down trading, opened the limit-down and surged over 7.8%, with a premium rate still as high as 34.14%.

Bitcoin has rebounded after its epic crash, rising above $70,000, but there is significant disagreement in the market regarding the sustainability of this rebound. Most analysts believe it is primarily a mitigating rally driven by short covering, rather than based on new bullish demand. Several theories circulate regarding the reasons for the crash: one is that some Hong Kong hedge funds have been liquidated due to leveraged long positions made using cheap yen; another is that former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes pointed out that large banks like Morgan Stanley were forced to sell to hedge structured notes linked to Bitcoin ETFs, creating a "negative gamma" effect that accelerated the decline; and a third is that some miners shifted to AI data center businesses in pursuit of higher profits, leading to a decrease in computing power.

On the bullish side, Tom Lee firmly believes the crypto market recovery has begun and will recover quickly; Ardi stated that Bitcoin's inflow at $72,000 is complete, and it needs to maintain support at $70,000 to push the price into the $76,000 range; Michaël van de Poppe pointed out that the weekly chart shows a capitulation candle, with $65,000-$70,000 as the bottom area, and a potential test of $85,000 in the future. Meanwhile, there is still a CME futures gap at $84,000, attracting bullish attention. Mel Mattison even predicts a new all-time high this summer. At the institutional level, despite market volatility, Bitmine Chairman Tom Lee and MicroStrategy both stated they have never reduced their holdings. Huobi co-founder Du Jun also confirmed that Li Lin has not reduced his BTC holdings, and his company, Avenir Group, remains BlackRock's largest holder of IBIT in Asia. Binance added 4,225 Bitcoins to its SAFU fund today, bringing its total holdings to 10,455 BTC.

However, the voices of the bears and the cautious remain loud. Trader Astronomer plans to open another short position after Bitcoin hits $72,000. Doctor Profit analyzes that Bitcoin will trade sideways in the $57,000-$87,000 range, and may then fall to the $44,000-$50,000 area. Filbfilb and Tony Severino, comparing Bitcoin to the 2022 bear market, believe that the final surrender has not yet occurred. BitBull goes even further, stating that the "real bottom" will be below $50,000. Keith Alan emphasizes that the current situation is only a mitigating rebound, and capital preservation is paramount. Trader Eugene also stresses the need for strict stop-loss orders in a bear market, prioritizing "survival first."

The Ethereum market also experienced a bloodbath, with Yi Lihua forced to liquidate approximately 400,000 ETH within a week due to leverage pressure, incurring losses of up to $700 million. His fund's holdings plummeted from a peak of 651,000 ETH to 20,000. Despite the severe setback, the price of Ethereum rebounded to above $2,000. Opinions on Ethereum's future are also divided. Analyst Poseidon believes that Ethereum's five-year consolidation period (oscillating between $2,000 and $4,000) was a significant accumulation phase, similar to the state of gold and silver before historic breakouts. Once it breaks through $4,000 and holds, it will usher in the most dramatic expansion in history. Technical indicators also provide some positive signals. Analyst BigBullMike7335 pointed out that its 3D RSI indicator has entered the oversold zone, a signal that has historically indicated market bottoms. Ali Charts also stated that Ethereum's price breaking below the 0.80 pricing band of $1,959 is also a sign of several past market bottoms. However, bearish voices remain in the short term. For example, analyst Crypto Tony said he is looking for opportunities for prices to fall further to the $2,000-$2,050 range.

In the altcoin market, Solana held its key support level of $61.64, and analyst Man of Bitcoin believes it still has the potential to challenge the resistance zone of $141 to $215 in its fifth wave. Despite overall market liquidity pressures, some sectors with strong narratives are still seeking opportunities for independent price movements.

2. Key Data (as of 13:00 HKT on February 9)

(Data source: CoinAnk, Upbit, SoSoValue, CoinMarketCap)

  • Bitcoin: $70,820 (down 19.2% year-to-date), daily spot trading volume $46.36 billion.

  • Ethereum: $2,081 (year-to-date -29.8%), daily spot trading volume $21.24 billion.

  • Fear of Greed Index: 14 (Extreme Panic)

  • Average GAS: BTC: 10.06 sat/vB, ETH: 0.35 Gwei

  • Market share: BTC 58.9%, ETH 10.5%

  • Upbit 24-hour trading volume rankings: XRP, BTC, ETH, AXS, SOL

  • 24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 51.58% / 48.42%

  • Sector Performance: The crypto market maintained its downward trend, with the meme sector leading the decline, falling by over 5%.

24-hour liquidation data: A total of 65,512 people worldwide were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $288 million. This included $185 million in BTC liquidations, $43.58 million in ETH liquidations, and $4.59 million in PIPPIN liquidations.

3. ETF Flows (as of February 6)

  • Bitcoin ETF: Net outflow of $318 million last week, marking the third consecutive week of net outflows.

  • Ethereum ETF: Net outflow of $166 million last week, marking the third consecutive week of net outflows.

  • XRP ETF: Net inflow of $39.04 million last week

  • SOL ETF: Net outflow of $8.9204 million last week.

4. Today's Outlook

  • MegaETH public mainnet will launch on February 9th.

  • CME Group will launch ADA, LINK and XLM futures on February 9.

  • CME Group plans to launch 100-ounce silver futures contracts on February 9.

  • Crypto Reporter: The White House's next round of discussions on stablecoin yields will be held on February 10th.

  • Robinhood will release its full-year 2025 earnings report on February 10.

  • Binance will delist RVVUSDT and YALAUSDT perpetual contracts on February 10th.

  • Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, and Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange: Adjustment of trading margin ratios for futures contracts such as gold, silver, and copper (February 9)

  • Iran Situation: Trump Says US Will Negotiate with Iran Again (Weekly Events)

The top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization with the largest gains today are: Maker up 30.7%, World Liberty Financial up 12%, Stable up 9.5%, Decred up 9.3%, and Aster up 6.2%.

5. Hot News

  • Data: Tokens such as CONX, AVAX, and APT will see significant unlocking, with CONX unlocking value estimated at approximately $15.6 million.

  • This Week's Preview | The White House and cryptocurrency institutions will hold the next round of consultations on stablecoin yields; Consensus HK opens.

  • Trend Research reports a loss of $688 million from selling 658,000 ETH in 8 days.

  • Analysis: The decline was not a systemic crisis, but rather a result of Bitcoin's inherent volatility and the market's misjudgment of the Federal Reserve's policies.

  • Bitcoin's Sharpe ratio has fallen to -10, approaching the lows of the 2018 and 2022 bear markets.

  • Bitcoin's rebound was accompanied by a surge of over 70% in the Coinbase premium index, but analysts believe the rally may be unsustainable.

  • Binance has confirmed the completion of a $300 million Bitcoin conversion for the SAFU fund, bringing its total holdings to 10,455 BTC.

  • Arthur Hayes bets that HYPE's stock price will outperform all "shitcoins" with a market capitalization of over $1 billion in the next six months.

  • Block, the Bitcoin payments company founded by Jack Dorsey, plans to lay off 10% of its staff.

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