Robinhood crypto revenue drops 38% as Q4 continues to spook crypto markets

Robinhood’s rich valuation cracks as crypto and options miss Q4 targets, but booming prediction markets and options keep the long‑term growth story alive.

Robinhood’s post‑earnings sell‑off is exactly what you’d expect when a richly valued brokerage misses on the top line and shows cracks in its growth engine. The stock slid roughly 7–8% in after‑hours trade after its fourth‑quarter revenue fell short of Wall Street expectations, despite a headline record.

Crypto has shrunk from over 20% of Robinhood’s revenue and is expected to settle nearer 10%, meaning even a 2022–2023 style “crypto winter” with a 50% hit to trading volumes would only shave about 10% off overall earnings—a painful but manageable drag as management pivots toward event contracts, prediction markets and a still‑booming options franchise posting record volumes into early 2026.

Earnings miss and market reaction

Robinhood posted about $1.28B in Q4 revenue, up 27% year‑on‑year but below the roughly $1.32–$1.35B analysts were looking for, handing a premium‑priced stock a classic growth shock. Autonomous Research senior analyst Christian Bolu didn’t sugarcoat it, calling Robinhood “an expensive stock” where “a top line miss is not helpful at all.” He argued the slide is “warranted here just given high expectations and… a very expensive stock.”

The disappointment is concentrated in transaction revenues. Crypto trading revenue came in around $221M versus expectations near $248M, while options revenue landed at about $314M against a roughly $331M Street consensus. That shortfall comes after the shares had already dropped about 40% from their October peak, leaving little patience for another misstep.

Crypto winter and changing mix

The bigger structural story is Robinhood’s exposure to a grinding crypto winter. Crypto has fallen from “north of 20” percent of revenue and is projected to settle closer to 10% of the business over time, Bolu noted. Running a 2022–2023 style freeze through the P&L implies “something like a 50% haircut to current trading volumes,” but only about a 10% hit to overall earnings—“not great, but completely manageable.

Management is leaning hard on alternatives. Executives have talked up a coming “prediction‑market super cycle,” with event contracts and markets on sports, politics and macro data increasingly offsetting weaker crypto flows. Options remain the true workhorse: Bolu highlighted options trading as Robinhood’s “actual biggest business,” pointing to “really strong volumes or record volumes to start 2026.”

Forward path for a bruised high‑beta stock

Despite the miss, the Street isn’t abandoning the name. Autonomous keeps a Buy rating and a triple‑digit target, arguing Robinhood is “significantly more diversified than in previous phases” and “more effectively managed,” positioning it to navigate prolonged risk‑off episodes in digital assets. Market‑wide, that matters: Robinhood still sits at the intersection of retail options flow, prediction markets and crypto exposure, a pure proxy on risk appetite not unlike how leveraged tech ETFs or high‑beta crypto baskets traded through prior volatility spikes.

Digital assets snapshot

Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $66,700, with roughly $42B in 24‑hour volume as liquidity thins after its October peak. Ethereum (ETH) changes hands around $1,980, with about $20–21B in 24‑hour turnover as majors digest the latest drawdown. Solana (SOL) hovers close to $133, with a 24‑hour range near $133–$143 and volume around $5B, underscoring that high‑beta layer‑1s remain the sharp end of the risk trade.