Dems have a chance to flip red state after GOP's 'worst nightmare' came true: analysis

The Democratic Party may feel bolstered by a special election result where they gained ground from the GOP in Donald Trump's backyard.

Such a result at Mar-a-Lago, which tipped to Democratic candidate Emily Gregory over Republican Jon Maples, could give the party some hope of success in Florida ahead of the midterms. The Hill columnist Liz Peek suggested a draft of voters aligned with Democratic Party values now living in Florida could tip the balance in the election later this year.

"For long-time residents of Florida, who enjoy the state’s low taxes, safe streets and sensible pro-business policies, the recent special election was their worst nightmare come true," Peek wrote.

"Millions of people have moved to the Sunshine State in recent years, particularly during the pandemic, attracted to a pleasant quality of life, an unobtrusive government and, for sure, wonderful weather.

"Among that throng have been many Democrats fleeing New York, New Jersey, Illinois, California and other blue states, driven out mainly by those states’ burdensome taxes and high crime rates.

"What are voters thinking? Do they really want to kill the golden goose that has made Florida so livable? Were they lashing out against Donald Trump, willing to sacrifice the benefits of GOP administration just to show their fury?"

Peek has since suggested a "winning message" of "affordability" could be a game-changer in Florida this year, though it would not be enough to kill off the GOP's super majority in Florida.

"The Palm Beach seat-flip was not the only upset recently scored by Democrats in Florida," Peek wrote. "In another special election, Democrat Brian Nathan appears poised to win a state Senate seat in West Tampa and parts of Hillsborough County formerly held by a Republican.

"Most startling was the election last December of the first Democrat to become mayor of Miami in almost 30 years.

"Registered Republicans outnumber Democrats by roughly 1.5 million. They have a supermajority in the state House, which won’t be threatened even if Nathan wins. But Democrats are targeting Florida, and across the nation they are, ironically, winning on the “affordability” issue — even though the most expensive places to live in the U.S. right now are all in blue states.

"Between now and the midterm elections, Republicans need to deliver programs that will lower the cost of living."